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GERRYMANDERING
101 JUGGLING
DISTRICTS
FOR FUN AND PROFIT
Gerrymandering
has been around since the early years of the United
States. The
term was first used in 1812 to describe abuses in the
method used by the governor of Massachusetts to draw
congressional districts. In a
political cartoon, some of Governor Elbridge Gerry’s
districts looked like salamanders. Political opponents
quickly coined the term “Gerrymander” and the word has
been a part of politics ever since. By
legal necessity, congressional districts must be
redrawn to reflect population shifts. We have
435 members of the House of Representatives. They are
to be assigned based on population. Each
state is guaranteed at least one representative no
matter how many people live in that state. Currently
we should have approximately one representative for
every 600,000 people. Wyoming has fewer than 600,000
people but still is entitled to 1 representative. Montana
has over 900,000 people but receives only one
representative. Populations
shift and a census is done every 10 years. In the
average Baby Boomer’s lifetime, Florida has seen its
number of congressmen increase from 8 to 25. California
has grown from 25 to 53. Ohio’s delegation has fallen
from 23 to 18. Populations
change within a state and the districts must be
redrawn to make each district as equal in population
as possible. After
all, representatives represent people, not land. Sometimes
the process is misused by the party in power to gain
political advantage.
Since many people identify with one party
over another, political scientists can identify
areas as to their likely vote. Past
elections and polls can pretty well establish the
likely vote. To
best explain this, we will create a new state called
brilliantly, “New State.” In another stroke of genius,
we will establish that this state is equally split
between the Red Party and the Blue Party. Our new
addition is entitled to 8 representatives. Obviously, it
is unlikely that any state would look like this and
have such convenient boundaries. We’re exaggerating to
make a point. Nothing
is foolproof or definitely predictable. In our real
world, Democrats can be elected from Republican
districts and vise-versa.
In a fair and
non-partisan world, we might expect districts to look
like this. We’ll
ignore geographic aberrations and other considerations
such as ethnicity and cultural centers. Ethnicity
sometimes enters the equation in drawing districts but
we’re just explaining the process here. Legislators in
New State have drawn 8 reasonable districts. Not
considering the personal appeal of candidates or other
factors, we would expect Blue and Red to have a good
chance to win 4 districts each. Two would
be in play. What happens if
the Red Party has control of the process? We could
get this:
HERE IS AN
EXPLODED VIEW:
As you can see,
the Red Party has a solid majority in districts A, C,
E, F, G and H. and Blue is likely to win B and D. Of course,
both must still field viable candidates and conduct
campaigns. What happens if
the Blue Party is in control? POSSIBLE BLUE
GERRYMANDERING Everything
changes with Blue in control. Six
districts are now likely to fall to them. Red has the
advantage in only 2 districts. In both
scenarios, 50 per cent of the citizens get only 25% of
the representation.
In the interest of fairness, lets see an
exploded view of Blue’s work: Notice Blue has
a 5 to 3 advantage (or better) in Districts A, B, C,
D, E and G. Red
should win F and H.
We see very
similar “Gerrymanders” and a similar unfairness to
half the people in the state. There are
many factors that could legitimately enter into
drawing districts and we have used an extreme example
of the process here. Similar
Gerrymandering has been practiced by both major
political parties.
So what is so bad? In our democratic republic we
give enormus power to government with the idea the
elected officials will represent us equally.
In today's highly charged partisan world the idea of
representation becomes swallowed up by a "winner
take all" and "to the victor belongs the spoils"
mentality. In my examples above a party could
get 75% of the legislative seats despite having only
50% of the voters. Do you remember the slogan:
"No taxation without representation." It's a concept
Americans once struggled for.
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